Working Papers and Pre-Prints
Longitudinal Causal Inference with Selective Eligibility
with Zhichao Jiang, D. James Greiner, Ryan Halen, and Kosuke Imai
arXiv
Isolated Causal Effects of Natural Language
with Victoria Lin and Louis-Philippe Morency
arXiv
Intervention effects based on potential benefit
with Alexander Levis and Edward Kennedy
arXiv
Statistical methods to estimate the impact of gun policy on gun violence
with Mitchell L. Doucette, Avi Feller, Alexander D. McCourt, and Elizabeth A. Stuart
arXiv
Does AI help humans make better decisions? A methodological framework for experimental evaluation
with D. James Greiner, Melody Huang, Kosuke Imai, Zhichao Jiang, and Sooahn Shin
arXiv
Bayesian Safe Policy Learning with Chance Constrained Optimization: Application to Military Security Assessment during the Vietnam War
with Zeyang Jia and Kosuke Imai
arXiv
Safe Policy Learning under Regression Discontinuity Designs with Multiple Cutoffs
with Yi Zhang and Kosuke Imai
arXiv
The Balancing Act in Causal Inference
with Avi Feller, David Hirshberg, and José Zubizarreta
arXiv
Publications
Safe Policy Learning through Extrapolation: Application to Pre-trial Risk Assessment
with D. James Greiner, Kosuke Imai, and Zhichao Jiang
Journal of the American Statistical Association 2025+
arXiv
Balancing Weights for Estimating Treatment Effects in Educational Studies
with Luke Keele, Matthew Lenard and Lindsay Page
Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness 2025+
Journal Site
Using Multiple Outcomes to Improve the Synthetic Control Method
with Eli Ben-Michael and Avi Feller
Review of Economics and Statistics 2025+
arXiv
US Abortion Bans and Fertility
with Suzanne Bell, Alex Franks, David Arbour, Selena Anjur-Dietrich, Elizabeth Stuart, Avi Feller, and Alison Gemmil
Journal of the American Medical Association 2025
Journal Site NYT Coverage CNN Coverage USA Today Coverage
US Abortion Bans and Infant Mortality
with Alison Gemmil, Alex Franks, Selena Anjur-Dietrich, Amy Ozinsky, David Arbour, Elizabeth Stuart, Avi Feller, and Suzanne Bell
Journal of the American Medical Association 2025
Journal Site NYT Coverage CNN Coverage USA Today Coverage
Estimating Racial Disparities in Emergency General Surgery
with Avi Feller, Rachel Kelz, and Luke Keele
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 2024+
Journal Site arXiv
Optimizing Language Models for Human Preferences is a Causal Inference Problem
with Victoria Lin and Louis-Philippe Morency
UAI 2024
arXiv
Temporal Aggregation for the Synthetic Control Method
with Liyang Sun and Avi Feller
American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 2024
Journal Site arXiv
Approximate Balancing Weights for Clustered Observational Study Designs
with Lindsay Page and Luke Keele
Statistics in Medicine 2024
Journal Site arXiv
Policy Learning with Asymmetric Counterfactual Utilities
with Kosuke Imai and Zhichao Jiang
Journal of the American Statistical Association 2024
Journal Site arXiv
Multilevel Calibration Weighting for Survey Data
with Avi Feller and Erin Hartman
Political Analysis 2024
Journal Site arXiv
Text-Transport: Toward Learning Causal Effects of Natural Language
with Victoria Lin and Louis-Philippe Morency
EMNLP 2023
Conference Proceedings arXiv
Using Balancing Weights to Target the Treatment Effect on the Treated when Overlap is Poor
with Luke Keele
Epidemiology 2023
Journal Site arXiv
Interpretable Sensitivity Analysis for Balancing Weights
with Dan Soriano, Peter Bickel, Avi Feller, and Sam Pimentel
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 2023
Journal Site arXiv
Varying Impacts of Letters of Recommendation on College Admissions:
with Avi Feller and Jesse Rothstein
Annals of Applied Statistics 2023
Journal Site NBER arXiv
Is It Who You Are or Where You Are? Accounting for Compositional Differences in Cross-Site Treatment Variation
with Benjamin Lu, Avi Feller, and Luke Miratrix
Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 2023
Journal Site arXiv
Estimating the effects of a California gun control program with Multitask Gaussian Processes
with David Arbour, Avi Feller, Alex Franks, and Steven Raphael
Annals of Applied Statistics 2023
Journal Site arXiv
Hospital Quality Risk Standardization via Approximate Balancing Weights
with Luke Keele, Avi Feller, Rachel Kelz, and Luke Miratrix
Annals of Applied Statistics 2023
Journal Site arXiv
Problems with evidence assessment in COVID-19 health policy impact evaluation: A systematic review of study design and evidence strength
with Noah Haber, Emma Clarke-Deelder, Avi Feller, Emily Smith, Joshua Salomon, Benjamin MacCormack-Gelles, Elizabeth Stone, Clara Bolster-Foucault, Jamie Daw, Laura Hatfield, Carrie Fry, Christopher Boyer, Caroline Joyce, Beth Linas, Ian Schmid, Eric Au, Sarah Wieten, Brooke Jarrett, Cathrine Axfors, Van Thu Nguyen, Beth Ann Griffin, Alyssa Bilinski, and Elizabeth Stuart
BMJ Open 2022
Journal Site
Synthetic Controls with Staggered Adoption
with Avi Feller and Jesse Rothstein
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 2022
Journal Site NBER arXiv
The Augmented Synthetic Control Method
with Avi Feller and Jesse Rothstein
Journal of the American Statistical Association 2021
Journal Site NBER arXiv
A trial emulation approach for policy evaluations with group-level longitudinal data
with Avi Feller and Elizabeth Stuart
Epidemiology 2021
Journal Site arXiv
Layoffs and the mental health and safety of remaining workers:
a difference-in-differences analysis of the US aluminium industry
with Holly Elser, David Rehkopf, Sepideh Modrek, Ellen A Eisen, and Mark R Cullen
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 2019
Journal Site
Open Source Software
augsynth: R package for augmented synthetic controls and synthetic controls with staggered adoption
github
multical: R package for multilevel calibration
github